In
a recent blog post I was talking about what the buyout of Warid by Airtel meant
for Uganda. And now that the wedding campaign has come out and we know that the
fact for sure is that it is real I think it’s going to be exciting to see how
the in-laws work together to make sure the marriage stays together or doesn't. Well from
an industry standpoint the issues to fix will be many.
Well,
because not unlike human relationships marriages (or mergers) are not easy. The
first issue normally comes with choosing which side of the bed. A small issue
but you see in the end even when the wife will take her husband’s name she will
have great influence on how happy he is for the rest of his life. So he has to
make certain concessions. I think things like that can be deal breakers and
impact the relationship deeply.
It
is my strongly held view that while Airtel has its merits it also has
challenges that will not allow it to get the most out of its new “wife”. Its like how you date the most enviable girl
on the market and you marry her. The truth is that all the other guys wanted
her but didn’t have the cojones to approach her. But in reality while you had
the balls in a moment of courage you can’t tame her or keep her down or
whatever male subjugation of women is called these days. She had a life of her
own before you came and you are hoping she dims her brightness for you. Ugandan
women – no chance. You must find your place in her shadow /spotlight or another
wife.
As
the most enviable brand in the market people were aware of what they were
buying. They knew where Warid was at every point in the value chain. Known for the
most innovative product offers on the market that bright star considerably
dimmed when compared to the lackluster and modular Airtel charade. The truth is
that integration of products can happen but when push comes to shove most of
Warid’s innovative products will be dropped in order to drive a more
streamlined brand agenda and product profile. The sad thing is that those were the
things people loved about Warid in the first place. So the wife must assume the
position and prepare herself. Things like the Entrepreneurship Fund don’t have
equivalents on the robust aggressive Airtel side of things. Like marrying a man
who never puts the toilet seat down when he goes to the washroom, he never
knows why you get UTI after UTI. If he changed his behavior he might be able to
afford that little dress you want.
Buyouts
are different from mergers in that the guys who get bought out never get a
choice on whether they stay. Most times a young blue-eyed auditor from a world renowned
audit firm works out the optimum “offload capacity”; how many resources the
buyer is able to take on with the buyout and therefore the rest will have to be
offloaded. Now it might mean more revenues for Allen and her cohorts at the URA
but if more than 50% of the current employees at Warid get laid off she can
expect that much less in taxes and probably not as much an increase in boda
boda revenues as their new chosen professions start to emerge. Kind of like a
guy telling you after getting married that you have to drop your single wild
partying friends since they “aren’t in your class anymore” and yet that brother
met you in club!!
Most
times the husband determines the sex positions the relationship will assume.
Sure when you are dating he might let you ride on top a few times but my
feelings are that this normally tends to change once the ring is slipped on.
Similarly, if it was not previously determined how the customers are going to
get screwed, there are going to be issues about this. Mass market pricing and
continuously communicating seemed to have worked around what Warid was doing
however whether this will work for the aloof new head of house is another
matter. We wait and watch for changes coming soon. For now I would tell the
customer to assume the position.
Speaking
about positions, when the hottest girl on the market gets taken other girls get
jealous most especially her friends. It says they weren’t worthy enough of the
ring; especially when some of them have been on the shelf for a longer period
of time-openly looking to be picked up, attending weddings, being at funerals,
showing open interest, going to the gym so as to hide the cellulite [read UTL].
It simply isn’t fair. It makes them seem less attractive and openly speaks
about their value to the market. But then what I think is that such behaviour
prompts the lady in muzigo number 3 to get all antsy and start asking for her
own wedding (no more akawundo kakubye’dirisa – Luganda for cohabiting). And we
can already see this behavior with freebie Fridays, bonus weekends, etc. We are
going to see a lot more “promos” from MTN before the market settles. Whether that
is a bad or good thing we are yet to see but I can tell you that all the miniskirts
are going to come out now.
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| Meanwhile back at the ranch |
Now
how about the step children? Anyone in the industry and who knows their
products well knows that Warid Pesa was the most superior mobile money product
offering on the market. Some have argued it was a technology thing [a superior IN]
and others had it down to the Chinese invasion [Huawei and ZTE]. Either way the
erstwhile sheltered child of the home Airtel Money was not as boasted or even
as robust. With the marriage comes the scenario of the mother saying to the father
“don’t let your child spoil my child with his bad manners”. One of two
scenarios could result. The stepchild is abandoned; Warid Pesa gets chopped up
for pieces or some modules but is overall co-opted into Airtel Money. In the
second scenario; the stepchild thrives and shines – someone thinking straight
takes Warid Pesa and gives it its true place in the spotlight and watch it make
money for them.
When
I first said the reason for the buyout was because Airtel needed a superior product
to compete with across the continent, it was argued that Uganda was the last place
to look for such a thing – since as my former boss used to say “Nothing good
grows out of Uganda” but consider this for a minute. If you buy Warid in Uganda
you not only get a challenger brand and 3 million customers, you also buy a mobile
money product superior to anything you have anywhere on the continent in 17 countries,
complete with its copyrights. Now the details were not disclosed but if I were
an Indian billionaire I would think that’s 17 stones to pay for 2 birds. Like
marrying a girl and finding out can also cook, and think business. Don’t laugh,
in Kampala it’s like a venn diagram to find a girl who can do all three!! The
third quality? That one they can all do – with bells and whistles!
I
think that we are bound for some turbulence ahead but then again like most
things Ugandan, someone who is NOT the ordinary citizen will win. We can celebrate
now and we should because after all who doesn’t need a party in these dark
times but we should always keep an eye on that shiny horizon for the sky
rumbles and cloud billow with the wind of changing times.
